The Effect of Consumer Sentiment on Consumption: Cross-Sectional Evidence from Elections
利用澳大利亚选举后消费者情绪调查数据，发现获胜方支持者比失败方支持者更乐观，这种情绪变化独立于经济基本面，并显著影响支出意愿和实际消费。
We seek to identify the causal effect of sentiment innovations on consumption. Using unique Australian consumer sentiment survey data, we show that, immediately after elections with a change of government, supporters of the winning party report substantially more optimistic beliefs about economic conditions than supporters of the losing party. We argue that this variation in beliefs is orthogonal to changes in fundamentals and find robust evidence that the shifts in sentiment affect spending intentions. Furthermore, using geographic variation in sentiment, vote shares, and automobile purchases, we find evidence that stated spending intentions are indicative of actual spending.