Will Bequests Attenuate the Predicted Meltdown in Stock Prices When Baby Boomers Retire?
构建了一个包含遗产动机的理性预期一般均衡模型,发现婴儿潮一代退休时股价仍会下跌,即使他们退休后继续持有资产,也无法缓解资本价格下降。
General equilibrium models that predict a reduction in asset prices when baby boomers retire typically assume that people consume all of their wealth before they die. However, many people hold substantial wealth when they die. I develop a rational expectations, general equilibrium model with a bequest motive. In this model, a baby boom increases stock prices, and stock prices are rationally anticipated to fall when the baby boomers retire, even though consumers continue to hold assets throughout retirement. The continued high demand for assets by retired baby boomers does not attenuate the fall in the price of capital. © 2001 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology