The Preferences of the Euro Area Monetary Policy-maker*
本文通过优化政策行为假设和GMM估计，揭示欧元区1995-2002年间的货币政策偏好，发现严格通胀目标为1.6%且存在利率平滑。
The aim of this article is to uncover the aggregate monetary policy preferences in the euro area. This is pursued under the assumption of optimizing policy behaviour subject to a simple model of the macroeconomic structure, following a procedure proposed recently in the literature in which GMM estimation stems from the optimal control solution to the optimization problem. Instead of waiting for more quarterly data of ECB policy-making, the sample goes as far back as possible into the pre-EMU years. Through a combined analysis of facts, data and literature on European integration, 1995 is identified as the start date of a euro area notional policy regime, sustained later by the ECB. The policy preferences are estimated as a loss function with strict inflation targeting at 1.6 per cent and interest-rate smoothing, in the period 1995–2002.