Zombie Credit and (Dis‐)Inflation: Evidence from Europe
研究发现僵尸信贷(向无生存能力企业提供的补贴信贷)具有通缩效应,通过维持这些企业存活造成总供给过剩,压低价格。基于欧洲数据,若2009年对资本不足银行进行资本重组,2012年后通胀率可提高0.21个百分点。
ABSTRACT We show that “zombie credit”—subsidized credit to nonviable firms—has a disinflationary effect. By keeping these firms afloat, zombie credit creates excess aggregate supply, thereby putting downward pressure on prices. Granular European data on inflation, firms, and banks confirm this mechanism. Markets affected by a rise in zombie credit experience lower firm entry and exit, capacity utilization, markups, and inflation, as well as a misallocation of capital and labor, which results in lower productivity, investment, and value added. If weakly capitalized banks were recapitalized in 2009, inflation in Europe would have been up to 0.21 percentage points higher post‐2012.