Sensitivity Analyses of the Deterrence Hypothesis: Let's Keep the Econ in Econometrics
指出极端边界分析（EBA）在推断模型设定时存在固有缺陷，并基于理论提出替代的敏感性分析方法，重新支持了威慑假说，强调理论在模型设定敏感性分析中的关键作用。
Leamer and McManus applied Extreme Bound Analysis (EBA) in an empirical study of the deterrent effects of capital punishment and other penalties. Their analysis has questioned the validity of the deterrence hypothesis. The thrust of our paper is twofold: first, by applying EBA to well‐known econometric models of demand, production, and human‐capital investment, our analysis exposes and illustrates the inherent flaws of EBA as a method of deriving valid inferences about model specification. Second, since the analysis shows Leamer and McManus's inferences about deterrence to be based on a flawed methodology, we offer an alternative, theory‐based sensitivity analysis of estimated deterrent effects using similar data. Our analysis supports the deterrence hypothesis. More generally, it emphasizes the indispensable role of theory in guiding sensitivity analyses of model specification.