Uncertainty and Sectoral Shifts: The Interaction Between Firm-Level and Aggregate-Level Shocks, and Macroeconomic Activity
研究发现企业层面与总体层面不确定性同时高企时，对经济增长的负面影响最大；基于部门转移理论，总体表现低迷且企业层面离散度高时，失业率上升最显著。交互效应大于各自效应之和。
This study predicts and finds that the interaction of firm-level and aggregate-level shocks explains a significant portion of shocks to macroeconomic activity. Specifically, we hypothesize that the relation between uncertainty and economic growth is most pronounced when both firm-level and aggregate-level uncertainty are high simultaneously. Similarly, we hypothesize that aggregate performance affects unemployment most when both firm-level dispersion is high and aggregate performance is low, based on the sectoral shift theory. Our hypotheses and empirical results show that the interactive effect of firm-level and aggregate-level shocks are larger than the sum of the individual effects. This paper was accepted by Mary Barth, accounting.