Trade in Commodities and Business Cycle Volatility
研究了新兴经济体和发达经济体在生产与贸易模式上的差异如何影响商业周期波动，发现新兴经济体在商品贸易上的顺差和制成品逆差会放大其对商品价格波动的反应。
This paper studies the role of differences in the patterns of production and international trade on the business cycle volatility of emerging and developed economies. We study a multisector small open economy in which firms produce and trade commodities and manufactures. We estimate the model to match key cross-sectional and time-series differences across countries. Emerging economies run trade surpluses in commodities and trade deficits in manufactures, while sectoral trade flows are balanced in developed economies. We find that these differences amplify the response of emerging economies to commodity price fluctuations. We show evidence consistent with this mechanism using cross-country data.