Monetary Policy without Interest Rates: Evidence from France’s Golden Age (1948 to 1973) Using a Narrative Approach
研究了1948-1973年法国央行以数量控制而非利率为主的货币政策，用叙事方法识别政策冲击，发现其对产出和价格有显著且持久的影响，解释了近一半的波动。
Central banking in France from 1948 to 1973 was a paradigmatic example of a policy that relied on quantities rather than interest rates. Standard SVAR analyses support the common view that monetary policy was ineffective during this period. However, this approach fails to identify the stance of monetary policy since it does not account for the specificity of quantitative controls on money and credit. An alternative identification strategy based on a narrative approach suggests that monetary policy shocks had strong and lasting effects in the conventional direction and accounted for nearly half of the variance in output and price levels.