No News in Business Cycles
使用结构因子增强VAR模型评估新闻冲击在商业周期中的作用，发现现有小规模VAR模型存在非基本性问题，新闻冲击的解释作用比以往文献发现的小，其影响与标准理论一致，大部分商业周期波动由非技术冲击解释。
A structural factor-augmented VAR model is used to evaluate the role of ‘news shocks’ in generating the business cycle. We find that existing small-scale VAR models are affected by ‘non-fundamentalness’ and therefore fail to recover the correct shock and impulse response functions; news shocks have a smaller role in explaining the business cycle than previously found in the literature; their effects are essentially in line with what predicted by standard theories and a substantial fraction of business cycle fluctuations are explained by shocks unrelated to technology.