Consumer Confidence and Stock Returns
研究了消费者信心是否预测股票收益、股票收益是否影响消费者信心，以及消费者信心与投资者情绪的关系。发现高消费者信心后股票收益低，个人投资者情绪随消费者信心上升，但机构投资者情绪与消费者信心无关。
Consumer confidence predicts economic activity, but does it also predict stock returns? Do stock returns affect consumer confidence? And what is the relationship between consumer confidence and investor sentiment? Answers to these questions are gained through examination of the consumer confidence measures of the University of Michigan and the Conference Board. Consumer confidence rises with high stock returns, but high consumer confidence is followed by low stock returns. Sentiments of individual investors about the stock market improve with consumer confidence about the economy, as if individuals were unaware that stock prices are a leading indicator of the economy. No relationship is found between changes in the sentiments of institutional investors and consumer confidence, however.