Are Low Interest Rates Deflationary? A Paradox of Perfect-Foresight Analysis
指出新费雪主义关于低利率影响的分析依赖于不合理的完美预见假设，并提出一种更合理的预期形成过程，结论既不支持新费雪主义，也不支持前瞻指引的强效应。
We argue that an influential neo-Fisherian analysis of the effects of low interest rates depends on using perfect-foresight equilibrium analysis under circumstances where it is not plausible for people to hold expectations of that kind. We propose an explicit cognitive process by which agents may form their expectations of future endogenous variables. Perfect foresight is justified by our analysis as a reasonable approximation in some cases, but in the case of a commitment to maintain a low nominal interest rate for a long time, our reflective equilibrium implies neither neo-Fisherian conclusions nor implausibly strong predicted effects of forward guidance.