The Oil Price-Macroeconomy Relationship Since the Mid-1980s: A Global Perspective
通过大规模宏观金融计量模型，从全球视角研究油价冲击对实体经济、财政货币政策及金融市场的综合影响，发现供给、投机等冲击在多次油价事件中导致衰退。
We investigate the oil price-macroeconomy relationship from a global perspective, by means of a large scale macro-financial-econometric model. In addition to real activity, we consider fiscal and monetary policy responses and labor and financial markets conditions, in order to provide a comprehensive account of the macro-financial effects of oil price shocks. We find that oil market supply side, speculative, preferences, and volatility shocks exercised recessionary effects during the first and second Persian Gulf War and 2008 oil price episodes. As long as oil supply will keep expanding at a slower pace than required by demand conditions, and in so far as the recently passed regulatory provisions aimed at controlling financial speculation in the oil (and other commodities) futures market will prove unsuccessful, a recessionary bias, determined by higher and more uncertain real oil prices, may then be expected to persist also in the near future.