The Elephant in the Room: The Impact of Labor Obligations on Credit Markets
研究发现劳动力市场摩擦对理解信贷市场至关重要，工资增长和劳动份额能预测信贷利差和债务增长，高劳动份额企业财务杠杆更低，模型解释了为何低违约概率下信贷利差仍较高。
We show that labor market frictions are first-order for understanding credit markets. Wage growth and labor share forecast aggregate credit spreads and debt growth as well as or better than alternative predictors. They also predict credit risk and debt growth in a cross section of international firms. Finally, high labor share firms choose lower financial leverage. A model with labor market frictions and risky long-term debt can explain these findings, and produce large credit spreads despite realistically low default probabilities. This is because precommitted payments to labor make other committed payments (i.e., interest) riskier.