Why Do Absolute Returns Predict Volatility So Well?
从理论和实证角度解释了绝对收益比平方收益在预测波动率方面表现更好的原因，基于连续时间随机波动模型并考虑了跳跃的影响，对风险管理和波动率建模有重要参考价值。
Our objective is volatility forecasting, which is core to many risk management problems. We provide theoretical explanations for (i) the empirical stylized fact recognized at least since Taylor (1986) and Ding, Granger, and Engle (1993) that absolute returns show more persistence than squared returns and (ii) the empirical finding reported in recent work by Ghysels, Santa-Clara, and Valkanov (2006) showing that realized absolute values outperform square return-based volatility measures in predicting future increments in quadratic variation. We start from a continuous time stochastic volatility model for asset returns suggested by Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard (2001) and study the persistence and linear regression properties of various volatility-related processes either observed directly or with sampling error. We also allow for jumps in the asset return processes and investigate their impact on persistence and linear regression. Extensive empirical results complement the theoretical analysis.