The Cost of Business Cycles Under Endogenous Growth
反驳了卢卡斯关于经济周期福利成本微不足道的观点，指出消费波动会通过影响增长率产生巨大福利损失，实证表明其规模约为卢卡斯原始估计的百倍。
Robert E. Lucas, Jr. argued that the welfare gains from reducing aggregate consumption volatility are negligible. Subsequent work that revisited his calculation continued to find small welfare benefits, further reinforcing the perception that business cycles do not matter. This paper argues instead that fluctuations can affect welfare, by affecting the growth rate of consumption. I show that fluctuations can reduce growth starting from a given initial consumption, which can imply substantial welfare effects as Lucas himself observed. Empirical evidence suggests the welfare effects are likely to be substantial, about two orders of magnitude greater than Lucas' original estimates.