高维非平稳时间序列最大特征值的中心极限定理与单位根检验

CLT for largest eigenvalues and unit root testing for high-dimensional nonstationary time series

Annals of Statistics · 2018
被引 18
ABS 4★

中文导读

研究了高维非平稳时间序列样本协方差矩阵最大特征值的极限分布,并据此提出两种新的单位根检验方法,通过理论和数值模拟验证其有效性。

Abstract

Let $\{Z_{ij}\}$ be independent and identically distributed (i.i.d.) random variables with $EZ_{ij}=0$, $E\vert Z_{ij}\vert^{2}=1$ and $E\vert Z_{ij}\vert^{4}<\infty$. Define linear processes $Y_{tj}=\sum_{k=0}^{\infty}b_{k}Z_{t-k,j}$ with $\sum_{i=0}^{\infty}\vert b_{i}\vert <\infty$. Consider a $p$-dimensional time series model of the form $\mathbf{x}_{t}=\boldsymbol{\Pi} \mathbf{x}_{t-1}+\Sigma^{1/2}\mathbf{y}_{t},\ 1\leq t\leq T$ with $\mathbf{y}_{t}=(Y_{t1},\ldots,Y_{tp})'$ and $\Sigma^{1/2}$ be the square root of a symmetric positive definite matrix. Let $\mathbf{B}=(1/p)\mathbf{XX}^{*}$ with $\mathbf{X}=(\mathbf{x_{1}},\ldots,\mathbf{x_{T}})'$ and $X^{*}$ be the conjugate transpose. This paper establishes both the convergence in probability and the asymptotic joint distribution of the first $k$ largest eigenvalues of $\mathbf{B}$ when $\mathbf{x}_{t}$ is nonstationary. As an application, two new unit root tests for possible nonstationarity of high-dimensional time series are proposed and then studied both theoretically and numerically.

高维时间序列非平稳性单位根检验特征值