稳定政策的实施

The implementation of stabilization policy

Theoretical Economics · 2021
被引 0
人大 AABS 4

中文导读

在动态随机一般均衡模型中区分了可行路径与可实施路径,发现新凯恩斯模型中最优货币政策路径可能不可实施,而实际经济周期模型中恒定债务的税收路径总是可实施的,为政策制定者提供了设计可实施政策规则的算术方法。

Abstract

In locally linearized dynamic stochastic rational‐expectations models, I introduce the concepts of feasible paths (paths on which the policy instrument can be expressed as a function of the policymaker's observation set) and implementable paths (paths that can be obtained, in a minimally robust way, as the unique local equilibrium under a policy‐instrument rule consistent with the policymaker's observation set). I show that, for relevant observation sets, the optimal feasible path under monetary policy can be non‐implementable in the new Keynesian model, while constant‐debt feasible paths under tax policy are always implementable in the real business cycle model. The first result sounds a note of caution about one of the main lessons of the new Keynesian literature, namely the importance for central banks to track some key unobserved exogenous rates of interest, while the second result restores to some extent the role of income or labor‐income taxes in safely stabilizing public debt. For any given implementable path, I show how to design arithmetically a policy‐instrument rule consistent with the policymaker's observation set and implementing this path as the robustly unique local equilibrium.

可行路径可实施路径政策工具规则新凯恩斯模型