Dividend Predictability Around the World
研究发现全球股市中股息增长可被股息收益率预测是普遍现象，但在大型发达市场中预测性较弱，因为股息更平滑、公司规模大、波动性低。美国缺乏预测性并不适用于其他国家。
Abstract We show that dividend-growth predictability by the dividend yield is the rule rather than the exception in global equity markets. Dividend predictability is weaker, however, in large and developed markets where dividends are smoothed more, the typical firm is large, and volatility is lower. Our findings suggest that the apparent lack of dividend predictability in the United States does not uniformly extend to other countries. Rather, cross-country patterns in dividend predictability are driven by differences in firm characteristics and the extent to which dividends are smoothed.