Juvenile Crime and Anticipated Punishment
利用美国2007-2015年政策变化，发现提高刑事责任年龄会增加青少年犯罪，且影响集中在低龄群体，效应远大于年龄阈值处的断点估计。
Can sanctions deter juvenile crime? Research indicates that they may not, as offending barely decreases when individuals cross the age of criminal majority and begin to face harsher sanctions. Several models of criminal behavior predict, however, that these small reactions close to the threshold may mask larger behavioral responses among individuals below the age threshold. Policy variation between 2007–2015 in the United States is used to show evidence consistent with these predictions—juvenile crime increases when the age of majority is increased. This increase is driven by younger age groups and is considerably larger than discontinuity estimates at the threshold.