Theory and History Behind Business Cycles: Are the 1990s the Onset of a Golden Age?
探讨了利润、投资、信贷、股价、通胀和利率之间的内在联系，认为这些内生变量构成商业周期的核心，而外生冲击和政策效应是暂时的。
The theory presented in this paper ties together profits, investment, credit, stock prices, inflation, and interest rates. The author discusses new estimates of profit and investment functions with important roles for growth and demand and productivity, price and cost levels, risk perception, credit volume, and credit difficulties. The relationships among these endogenous variables are viewed as constituting an enduring core of business cycles, the exogenous shocks and policy effects as more transitory and peripheral.