The Impact of Overconfidence and Ambiguity Attitude on Market Entry
通过实验区分过度自信和模糊态度对市场进入的影响，发现过度自信仅在技能型市场中促进进入，而模糊寻求行为在技能型市场中独立于自信水平导致更高进入率，挑战了以往将市场进入差异归因于过度自信的结论。
We study the behavioral drivers of market entry. An experiment allows us to disentangle the impact on entry across different types of markets of two key behavioral mechanisms: overconfidence and attitude toward ambiguity. We theorize and show that the causal effect of overconfidence on entry is limited to skill-based markets and does not appear in those that are chance based. Moreover, we also find that, independent of confidence levels, individuals exhibit ambiguity-seeking behavior when the result of the competition depends on their skills, which, in turn, leads to higher levels of entry. This preference for ambiguity thus can explain results that have previously been attributed to overconfidence. Our results challenge existing literature that has inferred overconfidence from differential entry levels across types of markets.