Demographic Structure and Macroeconomic Trends
利用21个OECD国家1970-2014年的面板VAR模型，估计人口结构变化对产出增长、投资和实际利率的长期影响，并预测当前老龄化与低生育率趋势将减缓经济增长。
We estimate the effect of changes in demographic structure on long-term trends of key macroeconomic variables using a panel VAR for 21 OECD economies from 1970 –2014. The panel data variation assists the identification of demographic effects, while the dynamic structure, incorporating multiple channels of influence, uncovers long-term effects. We propose a theoretical model, relating demographics, innovation, and growth, whose simulations match our empirical findings. The current trend of population aging and low fertility is projected to reduce output growth, investment, and real interest rates across OECD countries.