Effects of the Energy Innovation and Carbon Dividend Act on U.S. and Global Agricultural Markets
利用全球农业展望模型，分析美国碳税（从每吨二氧化碳当量15美元逐步升至105美元）对农产品生产、价格、贸易及土地利用变化导致的温室气体排放的影响。结果显示，碳税提高生产成本，但净收益下降有限，美国出口格局变化，全球土地利用调整导致少量额外排放。
We use a global agricultural outlook model to analyze changes in agricultural production, prices, trade, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from land-use change triggered by a carbon tax in the United States. The carbon tax scenario is consistent with proposed U.S. legislation starting at $15 t-1 CO2-equivalent (CO2-e) and increasing annually by $10. The scenario covers carbon taxes from $15 to $105 over the 10-year projection period. Our results show that at the end of the projection period, the production cost for corn and soybeans increases by 16.4% and 11.9%, respectively at a carbon tax of $105 t-1 CO2-e. The increase in the cost of production is compensated in part by a slight increase in commodity prices and a contraction in area. Hence, the decrease in net returns for corn, soybeans, and wheat is 7.4%, 4.2%, and 8.0%, respectively, for the highest carbon price. Exports from the U.S. decrease for all commodities except rapeseed and wheat which experience an increase by 1.4% and 0.1%, respectively. Corn and soybean exports decrease by 5.0% and 0.8%, respectively. These changes in trade patterns also result in a re-allocation of land-use in the rest of the world leading to a slight increase in GHG emissions representing 0.6% of total U.S. emissions in 2017. It is important to note that our study only covers one particular sector of a carbon tax and the increase in emissions is small compared to the overall projected reduction.