Data Revisions Are Not Well Behaved
研究美国主要宏观经济变量数据修订的经验性质，发现修订不满足零均值、不可预测等理想统计性质，表明统计机构的初步公告存在偏差且非理性。
We document the empirical properties of revisions to major macroeconomic variables in the United States. Our findings suggest that they do not satisfy simple desirable statistical properties. In particular, we find that these revisions do not have a zero mean, which indicates that the initial announcements by statistical agencies are biased. We also find that the revisions are quite large compared to the original variables and they are predictable using the information set at the time of the initial announcement, which means that the initial announcements of statistical agencies are not rational forecasts.