Collateral Damage: Trade Disruption and the Economic Impact of War
利用1870年以来的双边贸易数据，通过引力模型估计战争对交战国和中立国贸易的即时与滞后影响，发现战争对贸易、国民收入和全球经济福利有巨大且持续的影响，且贸易损失的成本可能不低于传统衡量的战争直接成本。
Conventional wisdom in economic history suggests that conflict between countries can be enormously disruptive of economic activity, especially international trade. We study the effects of war on bilateral trade with available data extending back to 1870. Using the gravity model, we estimate the contemporaneous and lagged effects of wars on the trade of belligerent nations and neutrals, controlling for other determinants of trade, as well as the possible effects of reverse causality. We find large and persistent impacts of wars on trade, national income, and global economic welfare. We also conduct a general equilibrium comparative statics exercise that indicates costs associated with lost trade might be at least as large as the conventionally measured direct costs of war, such as lost human capital, as illustrated by case studies of World Wars I and II. © 2010 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.