Delayed Overshooting: Is It an ’80s Puzzle?
重新研究延迟超调谜题，发现它主要是1980年代沃尔克任美联储主席时的现象，并确认了多恩布什的超调假说。
We reinvestigate the delayed overshooting puzzle. Using a method of \nsign restrictions,we find that delayed overshooting is primarily a phenomenon \nof the 1980s when the Fed was under the chairmanship of Paul \nVolcker. Related findings are as follows: (1) Uncovered interest parity \nfails to hold during the Volcker era and tends to hold during the post- \nVolcker era; (2) US monetary policy shocks have substantial impacts \non exchange rate variations but misleadingly appear to have small impacts \nwhen monetary policy regimes are pooled. In brief, we confirm \nDornbusch’s overshooting hypothesis.