External Constraints on Monetary Policy and the Financial Accelerator
构建了一个小型开放经济宏观模型,分析汇率制度与金融困境的关系,并以韩国1997-98年金融危机为例,说明固定汇率制如何通过束缚货币政策加剧危机。
We develop a small open economy macroeconomic model where financial conditions influence aggregate behavior. Our goal is to explore the connection between the exchange rate regime and financial distress. We first show that a calibrated version of the model captures well the behavior of the Korean economy during its financial crisis period of 1997–98. In particular, the model accounts for the sharp increase in lending rates and the large drop in output, employment, investment, and measured productivity. The financial market frictions play an important role, further, explaining roughly half the decline in overall economic activity. We then perform some counterfactual exercises to illustrate how the fixed exchange rate regime likely exacerbated the crisis by tying the hands of monetary policy.