Navigating by the Stars: The Natural Rate as Economic Forecasting Tool
探讨了自然利率作为基准，帮助美联储决策者评估货币政策立场，并指出目标联邦基金利率与自然利率的差距可用于预测实际经济活动和通胀。
Fed policymakers must assess the stance of monetary policy each time they decide whether the target federal funds rate should be changed. Several different benchmark, or ?natural, ? interest rates have been suggested for this purpose. The gap between the target funds rate and the natural rate should, in principle, help forecast real economic activity and inflation.