Systemic Crises and Growth
研究发现，经历过金融危机的国家平均增长更快。通过信贷增长偏度衡量危机发生，偏度与GDP增长呈负相关，表明系统性风险促进增长。模型解释为在金融自由化且合约执行适度的经济中，系统性风险承担鼓励投资，提高平均增长但增加危机频率。
Countries that have experienced occasional financial crises have, on average, grown faster than countries with stable financial conditions. Because financial crises are realizations of downside risk, we measure their incidence by the skewness of credit growth. Unlike variance, negative skewness isolates the impact of the large, infrequent, and abrupt credit busts associated with crises. We find a robust negative link between skewness and GDP growth in a large sample of countries over 1960-2000. This suggests a positive effect of systemic risk on growth. To explain this finding, we present a model in which contract enforceability problems generate borrowing constraints and impede growth. In financially liberalized economies with moderate contract enforceability, systemic risk taking is encouraged and increases investment. This leads to higher mean growth but also to greater incidence of crises. In the data, the link between skewness and growth is indeed strongest in such economies.