Optimal farm size in an uncertain land market: the case of Kyrgyz Republic
运用实物期权模型研究土地开发问题，基于吉尔吉斯家庭调查数据，发现不确定性下每公顷收入阈值与耕地面积正相关，且土地供给连续性影响农场租赁决策。
Abstract This article applies a real options model to the problem of land development. Making use of the 1998–2001 Kyrgyz Household Budget Survey, we show that when the hypothesis of decreasing return to scale holds, the relation between the threshold value of revenue per hectare and the amount of land cultivated is positive. In addition, the relation between the threshold and the amount of land owned is positive in the case of continuous supply of land and negative when there is discontinuous supply of land. The direct consequence is that, in the first case, smaller farms will be more willing to rent land and exercise the option where, in the second case, larger farms will exercise first. The results suggest three main conclusions: (i) the combination of uncertainty and irreversibility is an important factor in land development decisions, (ii) farmer behavior is consistent with the continuous profit maximization model, and (iii) farming unit revenue tends to be positively related to farm size, once uncertainty is properly accounted for.