拥有住房能否对冲搬迁风险?

Can Owning a Home Hedge the Risk of Moving?

American Economic Journal: Economic Policy · 2013
被引 59
人大 A-ABS 3

中文导读

研究发现,家庭倾向于在房价相关性高的城市间搬迁,这提高了自有住房的对冲价值,且家庭更可能在预期搬迁相关性高时选择购房。

Abstract

For households that face a possibility of moving across MSAs, the risk of home owning depends on the covariance of the sale prices of their current houses with the purchase prices of their likely future houses. We find empirically that households tend to move between highly correlated MSAs, significantly increasing the distribution of expected correlations in real house price growth across MSAs, and so raising the “moving-hedge” value of owning. Own/rent decisions are sensitive to this hedging value, with households being more likely to own when their hedging value is greater due to higher expected correlations and likelihoods of moving. JEL (D14, R21, R23, R31)

住房对冲跨城市迁移房价相关性自有-租赁决策