Has Monetary Policy Been So Bad That It Is Better to Get Rid of It? The Case of Mexico
利用墨西哥1976-1997年月度数据，通过向量自回归模型发现货币政策冲击对产出和价格无影响，而美国经济冲击比油价冲击更重要，且货币政策对国外冲击的反应在1994年危机中起了重要作用。
Motivated by the dollarization debate in Mexico, we estimate an identified vector autoregression for the Mexican economy, using monthly data from 1976 to 1997, taking into account the changes in the monetary policy regime that occurred during this period. We find that (i) exogenous shocks to monetary policy have had no impact on output and prices; (ii) most of the shocks originated in the foreign sector; (iii) disturbances originating in the U. S. economy have been a more important source of fluctuations for Mexico than shocks to oil prices. We also study the endogenous response of domestic monetary policy by means of a counterfactual experiment. The results indicate that the response of monetary policy to foreign shocks played an important part in the 1994 crisis.