Medium- and Long-Term Educational Consequences of Alternative Conditional Cash Transfer Designs: Experimental Evidence from Colombia
哥伦比亚波哥大2005年对中学生实施三种有条件现金转移方案，发现强制家庭储蓄部分转移款能通过增加高等教育入学（非直接激励）促进长期人力资本积累，而直接激励按时入学效果不佳。
In 2005 the city of Bogota, Colombia, introduced three conditional cash transfer programs for secondary schooling, randomly assigning socioeconomically disadvantaged students to different payment structures. We show, through administrative data, that forcing families to save one-third of the transfer increases long-term human capital accumulation by means of additional tertiary education-which is not incentivized-, casting doubt on conditionalities as a driving mechanism. Directly incentivizing on-time tertiary enrollment does no better than forcing families to save a portion of the transfer Whereas forcing families to save increases enrollment in four-year universities, incentivizing tertiary enrollment only increases enrollment in low-quality colleges.