A No‐Arbitrage Structural Vector Autoregressive Model of the UK Yield Curve*
将结构向量自回归与无套利方法结合，构建多因子仿射期限结构模型，研究供给、需求和货币政策冲击对英国收益率曲线的影响。
Abstract This article combines a Structural Vector Autoregression with a no‐arbitrage approach to build a multifactor Affine Term Structure Model (ATSM). The resulting No‐Arbitrage Structural Vector Autoregressive (NASVAR) model implies that expected excess returns are driven by structural macroeconomic shocks. This is in contrast with a standard ATSM, in which agents are concerned with non‐structural risks. As a simple application, we study the effects of supply, demand and monetary policy shocks on the UK yield curve. We show that all structural shocks affect the slope of the yield curve, with demand and supply shocks accounting for a large part of the time variation in bond yields.