先验假设在贝叶斯模型平均中的影响及其在增长回归中的应用

On the effect of prior assumptions in Bayesian model averaging with applications to growth regression This article was published online on 30 March 2009. An error was subsequently identified. This notice is included in the online and print versions to indicate that both have been corrected l6 April 2009&rsqb

Journal of Applied Econometrics · 2009
被引 103
人大 AABS 3

中文导读

研究在线性回归中,不同先验假设如何影响贝叶斯模型平均对模型大小、变量入选概率和预测性能的推断,并基于跨国增长数据推荐合适的先验。

Abstract

We consider the problem of variable selection in linear regression models. Bayesian model averaging has become an important tool in empirical settings with large numbers of potential regressors and relatively limited numbers of observations. We examine the effect of a variety of prior assumptions on the inference concerning model size, posterior inclusion probabilities of regressors and on predictive performance. We illustrate these issues in the context of cross-country growth regressions using three datasets with 41-67 potential drivers of growth and 72-93 observations. Finally, we recommend priors for use in this and related contexts. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

贝叶斯模型平均先验假设增长回归变量选择