Implicit Forward Rents as Predictors of Future Rents
利用瑞典三大城市1998-2002年的办公租赁数据，研究了租金期限结构与未来即期租金的关系，发现远期租金在某些地区能正向预测但低估未来租金，并指出租金指数应同时控制质量和期限。
This paper investigates the relation between the term structure of rents and future spot rents. A rich database of office rental agreements for various maturities is used to estimate the term structure of rents, and from this structure implicit forward rents are extracted. The data pertain to commercial properties in the three largest Swedish cities for the period 1998–2002. A positive relation between forward and spot rents is found in some regions, but forward rents underestimate future rent levels. Another contribution of the paper lies in the area of rental index construction. We provide evidence that rental indices should not only be quality constant ( i.e. , control for characteristics), but should also be maturity constant.