A multicountry comparison of term-structure forecasts at long horizons
比较了美国、英国、西德和瑞士的利率期限结构对长期通胀和利率变化的预测能力，发现期限结构对通胀预测效果显著，对利率变化预测仅在五年期有效。
This paper extends previous work on the information in the U.S. term structure at longer maturities to Britain, West Germany, and Switzerland. We find strong evidence that the term structure does have significant ability to forecast changes in inflation, particularly at long maturities. On the other hand, the ability of the term structure to forecast changes in one-year interest rates is somewhat weaker; only at the very longest horizon (five years) is there significant forecasting ability for interest-rate changes.