Industry dynamics with stochastic demand
研究行业在总需求冲击下的动态变化，分析企业生产率随机演化时，退出决策、总产出、利润和生产率分布如何随需求路径和历史变化，并指出需求低迷可促使低生产率企业退出，提升福利。
We study the dynamics of an industry subject to aggregate demand shocks where the productivity of a firm's technology evolves stochastically over time. To characterize the intertemporal evolution of the distribution of firms, we discuss in particular how exit decisions, aggregate output, profits, and distributions of firm productivities vary (a) across different demand realization paths; (b) along a demand history path, detailing the effects of continued good or bad market conditions; and (c) for different anticipated future market conditions. We show how poor demand conditions can lead to increased exit of low-productivity firms at all future dates and states and raise welfare due to the impact on exit decisions. Copyright (c)2008, RAND.