Predicting Restatements in Macroeconomic Indicators using Accounting Information
研究发现盈利增长离散度包含劳动力重新配置和失业变化的信息，政府统计机构发布的初步宏观经济估计未完全纳入这些信息，因此盈利增长离散度可预测名义和实际GDP增长及失业率的未来修正，且调整后的GDP估计对泰勒规则和巴塞尔III有显著影响。
ABSTRACT Earnings growth dispersion contains information about trends in labor reallocation, unemployment change, and, ultimately, aggregate output. We find that initial macroeconomic estimates released by government statistical agencies do not fully incorporate this information. As a consequence, earnings growth dispersion predicts future restatements in nominal and real GDP growth (and unemployment change) both in the in-sample and out-of-sample tests. Further, when we adjust GDP estimates using the out-of-sample restatement predictions, we find statistically and economically significant effects for the monetary policy prescriptions (Taylor rule) and banking regulation (Basel III).