Central Bank Communication and the Perception of Monetary Policy by Financial Market Experts
研究金融市场专家如何感知欧洲央行货币政策，发现专家系统性地误判了央行的利率规则，且对通胀的反应感知在2003年后更准确，但对产出的反应感知在金融危机中偏差加大。
This paper investigates how financial experts perceive the monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB). Assuming a Taylor‐rule‐type reaction function, we use qualitative survey expectations about future interest rates, inflation, and output to discover the sources of individual interest rate forecast errors. Based on a panel random coefficient model, we show that financial experts have systematically misperceived the ECB’s interest rate rule. While perception of monetary policy regarding inflation has become more accurate since the ECB’s clarification of the monetary policy strategy in 2003, misperception regarding the ECB’s reaction to output has increased in the financial crisis.