The Valuation of Cash Flow Forecasts: An Empirical Analysis
比较了51个高杠杆交易的市场价值与现金流预测的折现值，发现两者平均误差在10%以内，且该方法不逊于可比公司或交易法。
ABSTRACT This article compares the market value of highly leveraged transactions (HLTs) to the discounted value of their corresponding cash flow forecasts. For our sample of 51 HLTs completed between 1983 and 1989, the valuations of discounted cash flow forecasts are within 10 percent, on average, of the market values of the completed transactions. Our valuations perform at least as well as valuation methods using comparable companies and transactions. We also invert our analysis by estimating the risk premia implied by transaction values and forecast cash flows, and relating those risk premia to firm and industry betas, firm size, and firm book‐to‐market ratios.