Disease and Development: A Reply to Bloom, Canning, and Fink
回应了关于寿命预期对经济增长影响的争论，基于Acemoglu和Johnson的研究，使用预测死亡率作为工具变量，发现寿命预期在40至60年内对人均GDP无显著正向影响。
Beginning in the 1940s, a wave of health innovations and more effective international public health measures led to a rapid and large improvement in health; for example, in some relatively poor countries, life expectancy at birth quickly rose from around 40 years to over 60 years. In Acemoglu and Johnson (2006, 2007), we constructed an instrument for these changes in life expectancy: “predicted mortality,” which is calculated from initial mortality by disease and the timing of global disease interventions. Across a wide range of specifications, our work suggests no positive effects—over 40- or 60-year horizons—of life expectancy on GDP per capita (or GDP per working-age population).