Decomposing Duration Dependence in a Stopping Time Model
构建了一个工人进出就业的经济模型，其中异质性工人在净收益达到最优边界时切换状态，导致失业持续时间服从逆高斯分布。利用奥地利社保数据估计模型，发现动态选择是持续时间依赖的关键来源。
Abstract We develop an economic model of transitions in and out of employment. Heterogeneous workers switch employment status when the net benefit from working, a Brownian motion with drift, hits optimally chosen barriers. This implies that the duration of jobless spells for each worker has an inverse Gaussian distribution. We allow for arbitrary heterogeneity across workers and prove that the distribution of inverse Gaussian distributions is partially identified from the duration of two non-employment spells for each worker. We estimate the model using Austrian social security data and find that dynamic selection is a critical source of duration dependence.