Tax Loss Carrybacks: Investment Stimulus versus Misallocation
研究发现，放宽亏损退税限制会刺激亏损企业投资，但其中三分之一用于投资，其余转为现金或返还股东；投资反应主要由高风险过度投资企业驱动，且低生产率亏损企业延迟退出，导致资源错配，损害总产出和生产率。
ABSTRACT Tax regimes treat losses and profits asymmetrically when profits are immediately taxed, but losses are not immediately refunded. We find that treating losses less asymmetrically by granting refunds less restrictively increases loss firms' investment: A third of the refund is invested and the rest is held as cash or returned to shareholders. However, the investment response is driven primarily by firms prone to engage in risky overinvestment. Consistent with the risk of misallocation, we find a delayed exit of low-productivity loss firms receiving less restrictive refunds, indicating potential distortion of the competitive selection of firms. This distortion also negatively affects aggregate output and productivity. Our results suggest that stimulating loss firms' investment with refunds unconditional on their future prospects comes at the risk of misallocation. JEL Classifications: G31; H21; H25.