Bank Asset Liquidation and the Propagation of the U.S. Great Depression
假设大萧条期间及之后的金融脱媒源于破产银行存款的缓慢清算。基于1921-40年数据的VAR模型显示,清算中破产银行的存款存量在解释1-3年产出变化上与货币存量同等重要,表明银行业冲击的动态效应是累积且广泛的。
We hypothesize that financial disintermediation during and after the Great Depression arose from the slow liquidation of failed-bank deposits. Empirical results from incorporating the stock of failed national bank deposits for the period 1921-40 in vector autoregression (VAR) models suggest that the stock of deposits in closed banks undergoing liquidation is as important as money stock in terms of explaining output changes over forecast horizons from one to three years. Hence, we infer that the dynamic effects of banking sector shocks were cumulative and pervasive during and after the Depression.