Subsidizing Fuel-Efficient Cars: Evidence from China’s Automobile Industry
研究中国2010-2011年最大规模节能汽车补贴政策对购车行为的影响，发现补贴虽促进销量但引发高能效车型间的替代效应，忽略此效应会高估政策福利，实际边际成本超过边际收益达300%。
This paper examines the response of vehicle purchase behavior to China’s largest national subsidy program for fuel-efficient vehicles during 2010 and 2011. Using variation from the program’s eligibility cutoffs and the rollout of the subsidy program, the program is found to boost sales for subsidized vehicle models, but also to create a substitution effect within highly fuel-efficient vehicles. Estimates imply that ignoring the substitution effect would lead one to conclude that the program is welfare enhancing, whereas in fact the marginal cost of the program exceeds the marginal benefit by as much as 300 percent.