The Private and External Costs of Germany’s Nuclear Phase-Out
研究了2011年福岛事故后德国淘汰半数以上核电产能的影响，发现煤电和电力进口填补了核电缺口，每年社会成本达30至80亿欧元，主要来自燃煤导致的空气污染健康风险。
Abstract Many countries have phased out nuclear power in response to concerns about nuclear waste and the risk of nuclear accidents. This paper examines the shutdown of more than half of the nuclear production capacity in Germany after the Fukushima accident in 2011. We use hourly data on power plant operations and a machine learning approach to estimate the impacts of the phase-out policy. We find that reductions in nuclear electricity production were offset primarily by increases in coal-fired production and net electricity imports. Our estimates of the social cost of the phase-out range from €3 to €8 billion per year. The majority of this cost comes from the increased mortality risk associated with exposure to the local air pollution emitted when burning fossil fuels. Policymakers would have to significantly overestimate the risk or cost of a nuclear accident to conclude that the benefits of the phase-out exceed its social costs. We discuss the likely role of behavioral biases in this setting, and highlight the importance of ensuring that policymakers and the public are informed about the health effects of local air pollution.