Financial Sector Weakness and the M2 Velocity Puzzle
研究发现，存款机构财务状况恶化是导致M2与GDP关系不稳定、预测误差大的主要原因；基于银行资本状况调整后的M2指标能改善预测效果，并稳定其与政策目标的关系。
Deterioration in the link between M2 and GDP, along with large prediction errors, led the Federal Reserve to downgrade M2 as a reliable indicator in 1993. We argue that the financial condition of depository institutions was a major factor behind this unusual pattern of M2 growth. When constructing measures of M2 based on banks' and thrifts' capital positions, we obtain superior M2 forecasting results and a more stable relationship between M2 and the ultimate goals of policy. M2 may contain useful information when there are no major disturbances to depository institutions. Copyright 2006, Oxford University Press.