What does anticipated monetary policy do?
通过将符号限制应用于VAR中的预期度量，量化了不完全和完全预期的货币政策创新（如前瞻指引）的经济效应，发现完全可信的前瞻指引在一年期有较大短期影响，但随期限延长效应增长有限，且预期政策创新噪音很大。
Applying sign restrictions to measures of expectations in a VAR, we quantify the economic effects of imperfectly and perfectly anticipated monetary policy innovations—the type of shocks induced by partially and fully credible forward guidance (FG). We find that fully credible FG one-year ahead has large near-term effects on prices and real activity, but, consistent with the forward guidance puzzle, these effects do not grow much larger as the FG horizon extends into the future. We also estimate that anticipated policy innovations are very noisy. At the one-year horizon, over 70 percent of the monetary-policy signal consists of noise, and the prevalence of noise increases at longer horizons. FG subject to this level of noise would be only partially credible and have significantly smaller macroeconomic effects.