Are Overconfident CEOs Born or Made? Evidence of Self-Attribution Bias from Frequent Acquirers
研究CEO的并购历史，发现首次并购公告效应为零，后续为负；并购概率随前期业绩上升，但前期成功不抑制后续负面财富效应；CEO在后续并购前净买入更多股票，支持自我归因偏差导致过度自信。
We explore the history of mergers and acquisitions made by individual CEOs. Our study has three main findings: (1) CEOs' first deals exhibit zero announcement effects while their subsequent deals exhibit negative announcement effects; (2) while acquisition likelihood increases in the performance associated with previous acquisitions, previous positive performance does not curb the negative wealth effects associated with subsequent deals; and (3) CEOs' net purchase of stock is greater preceding subsequent deals than it is for first deals. We interpret these results as consistent with self-attribution bias leading to overconfidence. We also find evidence that the market anticipates future deals based on the CEO's acquisition history and impounds such anticipation into stock prices.